How to read the sheet

Value Area Daily is a one-page summary of where the mini-DAX® future (FDXM) traded yesterday and overnight. It's meant to be read in the few minutes before the Xetra® cash open at 09:00 Frankfurt time. Every level comes from published trades. Nothing on it is a forecast or a trade signal.

The levels

• PXC (prior Xetra close). The futures price at 17:30 Frankfurt, when the Xetra cash session closed the day before. Opening "gaps" are measured from here.
• Value area (VAH / POC / VAL). All contracts traded between 09:00 and 17:30 the day before, stacked by price. The POC (point of control) is the price with the most volume. The value area is the band around it holding 70% of the day's volume: VA high on top, VA low at the bottom. It shows the prices where most business got done.
• Overnight (ON) high, low and close. The range traded from 17:30 to 09:00, in the evening session and the early morning session.
• ON VWAP. The volume-weighted average price of the overnight trades.
• Open. On the estimate sheet this is the overnight close, used as a stand-in. On the final sheet it is the first traded price at 09:00.
• Initial balance (IB). The high and low of the first hour, 09:00–10:00. It is added once that hour is over.

All levels are shown in whole index points.

The 3-check bias gate

The gate is three simple, mechanical questions about the open. Each one answers up, down or neutral:

1. Gap. Is the open at least 20 points away from PXC? Above PXC means up, below means down. Smaller than 20 points counts as neutral.
2. Overnight inventory. Did the overnight session finish above or below its own VWAP? Closing above suggests overnight buyers are in control (up). Closing below suggests sellers (down).
3. Open vs. value. Does the market open outside yesterday's value area? Above VA high means up, below VA low means down, and inside the value area counts as neutral.

All three agree → long or short bias. The market opens away from yesterday's value, with a real gap, and the overnight trade is leaning the same way. Traders who study auction market theory watch for directional days in this setup, and use the gap, PXC and the value-area edge as reference points.

Any disagreement → rotation. Mixed signals usually mean a more two-sided, rotational session. The usual approach then is to wait and let the first 30–60 minutes (the open type and the initial balance) show who is in control.

What the gate is not

It isn't a trading system, and it doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It's a checklist that sorts the morning context into "directional setup" or "wait and see". Markets often do the opposite of what any checklist suggests. Use it alongside your own plan and risk limits, or not at all.

Estimate and final

• Estimate. Built about 10 minutes before the open from all trades available so far. The data is delayed 15 minutes, so the last ~15 minutes of overnight trading are missing. The open is indicative.
• Final. Built about 15–20 minutes after 09:00, once the delayed opening trades are published. The open is the real one, so the gate result can change.

Times

The sheet shows Frankfurt time (CET/CEST) and US Eastern time (ET) side by side. For a few weeks each spring and autumn, the US and Europe change clocks on different dates. In those weeks US data releases come one hour earlier than usual in European time, and the sheet flags them with ⏰.